Monday, September 14, 2009

The Politics of 2012 and our Security at a brink of collapse!


There is an old Chinese proverb that says: "ask the youth, they know everything." Our country is going through some very interesting developments. The trend is worrying and not unless we do something about it...Someone in the system is designing a catastrophy in kenya under our watch. The Challenge Consider this; 

  • President of Kenya: Emilio Mwai Kibaki
  • Minister for Internal Security: George Kinuthia Saitoti
  • Police Commissioner: Mr. Mathew Kirai Iteere
  • Director Criminal Investigation Department: Mr. Simeon Karanja Gatiba
  • Permanent Secretary Provincial Administration and National Security: Francis Kimemia
  • Cabinet Office: Amb. Francis Muthaura:
  • State House: Prof. Nick Wanjohi
  • Administration Police Commandant: Kinuthia Mbugua
  • CID Director………?
  • NSIS Director…….?
  • The Impending Changes at the Department of Defense for the Chief of general Staff: Who will it be?
  • A coalition government that is about to collapse
  • Over 2.7 million Millitia Gangs across Kenya.
  • The impending Youth unemployment all over Kenya!
  • The Ghost Provices that are currently underway!
  • The hundreds of Districts that have now been declared illegal!

NOW: Is someone designing a crisis for 2012?

Good Question.


The Interim Independent Electoral Commission's mandate ends on December 28th 2010.

The debate on the Constitution review is still far fetched and we are not sure if the current regime will give us new constitution.

The Agenda 4 seems to have been forgotten by the two principles.

Ocampo Moreno of the Hague is watching the events as they unfold.


Now imagine the following futuristic scenario (**Events dont happen in real time): The Year is 2011 September and Mr. Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto and others not named in this article but who are in the Waki List of Fame/Shame (read all the presidential aspirants) are arrested and arraigned at the international Criminal Court in the Hague. The clamor for a new constitution is at its top gear. We are about to go to the referendum. A new twist to the Hague saga hits us that Mr. Mwai kibaki and Raila Odinga MUST be key witnesses in the hearings at the Hague.


The Country runs into a disarray because there is a looming crisis, a constitutional crisis. There is incitement across Kenya due to the Hague and War Lords are emerging from different ethnic Cocoons. The Country is going to run into a crisis and since all the security apparatus are being controlled from one source…. There is much in the making than meets the eye. You and me have to be very afraid. Either run and run very first or stay put and confront the situation and let those rulers stop leading this country into anarchy.

If a coup will happen in Kenya, it will not be the hands of the security apparatus but the hands of the handlers of the presidential office. If some comments from the Presidents men in the recent debate on the appointment of Aron Ring Error are anything to go by then we must be very afraid read…. ("Eroding executive authority can lead to disaster as has happened in some countries ... it has even led to military coups," the source said, emphasizing the need to follow the Constitution) Daily Nation Monday.

In three hypotetical scenarios this is going to happen;

  1. The country will be divided to such magnitude that a war will be the only solution to resolve the long standing political differences and historical injustices. If we go to war, Kenya will never be the same again.
  2. A revolution happens and the current political elites are sidelined in the new dispensation. The country is breathing freshness. But there is tension between the status quo and the new wave of change that has taken over the country. Since the status quo is afraid to relinquish power they try to cling on and influence a military coup. Many people are killed and a state of emergency is declared. The country becomes very unmanageable …. (read like Somalia but worse). If this happens it will take us very long before we recover.
  3. By miracle, a wave of change sweeps across the country. The current leading lights are handed over to the Hague and a new country order is born with a new and fresh leadership majority being youth. The military does not interfere with the democratic elections that have just been won and the ground has shifted beneath the old guard. Though there is tension across the country on what the new government will do to the old guard who have messed up Kenya. A semblance of peace is restored and things start to change for the better.


Which hypotetical scenario are we going to be in……………?

Your guess is as good as mine.


Can the youth hold this country together in the wake of the current rulers being declared criminals fit for the Hague?

Think about it?

We are at the brink. ................ And you have a choice to make it or break it.

What will your choice be?


Emmanuel Dennis.
Follow me and NYC on Twitter:

Emmanuel Dennis Ngongo
P.O. Box 8799 - 00200
Nairobi Kenya
Cell: +254 722619005

No comments:

Post a Comment